US Inflation Expectations

Scroll to zoom, drag to select a window · hold the middle mouse button (or Shift) and drag to slide through time, on any panel including the component grid · every panel follows · double-click to reset · click any legend entry to hide or restore it · shaded bands mark NBER-dated US recessions, peak to trough

Breakevens are the yield difference between nominal Treasuries and TIPS, so they measure inflation COMPENSATION rather than expectation alone: they embed a liquidity and inflation-risk premium and move with risk appetite as well as with the outlook. The Cleveland Fed figures are model estimates combining market data with surveys; the University of Michigan figures are household survey medians, which run persistently above both. None is definitive, which is why all three are shown. Daily breakevens are averaged over observed trading days within each month, so intramonth moves are not visible here. Every series on this page is CPI-referenced — breakevens settle on CPI-U, the Cleveland Fed series are expected CPI, and the household question is about prices in general — while the FOMC's 2% objective is defined on the PCE price index. The reference line is therefore drawn at the CPI equivalent of 2% PCE: 2.00 plus the mean headline CPI-minus-PCE 12-month gap of 0.34pp over 2000–2019, computed by Macro Edge Research from the published indices. A flat 2% line would sit below these series for a reason that has nothing to do with anchoring. Forecasts and track record → · Disclaimer