Inflation & Price Dynamics
U.S. Inflation
Inflation Forecasts & Review
Each month's CPI and PCE forecast is published ahead of the BLS and BEA print, with confidence intervals. The Review that follows scores both calls against the outcome and the Wall Street consensus for the same month, then breaks down what moved.
U.S. Inflation
Inflation Data
The released record for consumer, personal-consumption and producer prices — monthly and annual rates, momentum over trailing windows, the goods and services split, and component-level detail, charted back to 1913 where the series allow. Refreshed with every print.
Monetary Policy & FOMC
U.S. Monetary Policy
FOMC Meeting Analysis
Structured scorecards of FOMC communications — a close reading of the minutes and statement that gauges tone, policy signals, and the inflection points around each decision.
U.S. Monetary Policy
Beige Book
A structured reading of the Fed's Beige Book — district-by-district activity, prices, and labor sentiment, tracked as a qualitative complement to the hard-data forecasts ahead of each FOMC meeting.
Labor Market
U.S. Labor
Employment & Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls, household survey analysis, unemployment rate decomposition, and sector-level employment trends.
U.S. Labor
Wage Growth & Labor Slack
Average hourly earnings, Employment Cost Index, JOLTS-based turnover measures, participation, and Beveridge curve analysis.
Economic Activity & Output
U.S. Activity
GDP Nowcasting
Quarterly pre-release GDP nowcast, published ahead of each BEA advance estimate with a confidence interval and a running scorecard against GDPNow, the SPF, and the New York Fed. After the release, the released record: growth contributions that sum to the headline, final sales, GDP against GDI, and the price deflator.
Kuwait Macro
Kuwait FX
The Kuwaiti Dinar & Currency Basket
A monthly monitor of the Kuwaiti dinar and its managed basket peg — tracking the stability of the exchange-rate regime alongside the adequacy of the Central Bank of Kuwait's official reserves that anchor it.
Commodities & Cross-Asset
Global Commodities
Commodities Monitor
Cross-commodity monitor spanning energy — crude term structure, inventories, and natural gas — alongside precious and industrial metals and agriculture, with futures-curve, positioning, and supply-demand analysis.
Cross-Asset
Energy & Inflation Passthrough
How commodity shocks transmit to prices — the crude-to-CPI channel, gasoline crack spreads, refining margins, and the read-through from energy and food to headline inflation and policy expectations.
Thematic & Special Reports
Special Edition
Spotlight Series
In-depth studies published around defining macro events and regime shifts — central-bank leadership transitions, changes to the policy framework, and structural inflection points — outside the regular forecast calendar.
Macro Edge Research