Inflation & Price Dynamics
U.S. Inflation
CPI Forecasts
Monthly Consumer Price Index forecasts with historical accuracy tracking, component breakdowns, and methodology notes.
U.S. Inflation
PCE Forecasts
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index analysis, core vs headline decomposition, and forward projections.
Monetary Policy & FOMC
U.S. Monetary Policy
FOMC Meeting Analysis
Statement parsing, dot plot decomposition, press conference tone, and policy inflection points around each FOMC decision.
U.S. Monetary Policy
Policy Path & Rate Expectations
Terminal rate projections, market-implied path via OIS and fed funds futures, and probabilistic rate scenario modeling.
Labor Markets
U.S. Labor
Employment & Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls, household survey analysis, unemployment rate decomposition, and sector-level employment trends.
U.S. Labor
Wage Growth & Labor Slack
Average hourly earnings, Employment Cost Index, JOLTS-based turnover measures, participation, and Beveridge curve analysis.
Economic Activity & Output
U.S. Activity
GDP Nowcasting
Real-time GDP tracking with component-level decomposition across consumption, investment, government, and net exports.
U.S. Activity
Industrial Production & Capacity
Manufacturing output, capacity utilization, ISM surveys, and goods-sector activity indicators.
Consumer Sector
U.S. Consumer
Spending & Retail Sales
Retail sales analysis, personal consumption expenditures by category, and real spending trends across goods and services.
U.S. Consumer
Sentiment & Confidence
University of Michigan sentiment, Conference Board confidence indices, and expectations-based leading signals.
Housing & Real Estate
U.S. Housing
Housing Activity
Housing starts, building permits, new and existing home sales, and builder sentiment (NAHB) tracking.
U.S. Housing
Home Prices & Affordability
Case-Shiller and FHFA price indices, mortgage rate dynamics, and affordability composite analysis.
Business Cycle & Recession Risk
U.S. Cycle
Recession Probability Models
Yield curve–based models, composite leading indicators, and probit-specification recession forecasts with historical performance.
U.S. Cycle
Cycle Dating & Regime Analysis
NBER-aligned cycle classification, expansion and contraction phase identification, and regime-switching macroeconomic signals.
Financial Conditions
U.S. Financial Conditions
Financial Conditions Index
Composite index tracking credit spreads, equity volatility, dollar strength, and funding-market stress relative to historical norms.
U.S. Financial Conditions
Credit & Liquidity Spreads
Investment-grade and high-yield spread analysis, swap spreads, repo-market stress indicators, and corporate funding conditions.
Macro Edge Research