The Commodities Complex

Scroll to zoom, drag to slide through time, on any panel including the component grid · hold the middle mouse button (or Shift) and drag to select a window · every panel follows · double-click to reset · click any legend entry to hide or restore it · shaded bands mark NBER-dated US recession monthsTap a chart for values, drag one sideways to slide through time · the range buttons and month pickers set the window, every panel follows · tap any legend entry to hide or restore it · shaded bands mark NBER-dated US recession months

The MER Commodities Index is a fixed-weight geometric index of the thirteen futures on this page (energy 60%, metals 18%, agriculture 22%; weights from public world-production magnitudes; Henry Hub and RBOB daily returns clipped at 10% to contain contract-roll gaps; 100 = end-2019). It is MER's own construction, built and weighted independently. The realized-volatility gauge is an annualized 0.94-lambda EWMA of daily WTI returns (backward-looking; options-implied measures lead it at turning points). The credit-stress gauge maps duration-hedged high-yield ETF drawdown plus the trailing distribution-yield spread into spread-like percent; it reflects traded prices, not observed bond spreads. Front-month continuous futures at daily closes; series roll at contract expiry without back-adjustment, so roll gaps are part of the tape, the cracks and ratios combine front months as of each session, and a few pre-2010 Brent sessions are absent upstream. Range presets and tile windows count trading sessions (1M = 22 sessions). Inventories and positioning are weekly official series and read n/a between observations. The data ships inside the page. · Forecasts and track record → · Disclaimer